heavy industry’s carbon problem is already solved

the technology exists. canada is proving it. the barrier is deployment, not innovation.

25-Jul-25

People talk about heavy industry like it’s an unsolvable problem. Steel needs coal. Cement needs limestone decomposition. Aluminum needs carbon anodes. These are supposedly the “hard-to-abate” sectors that will be last to decarbonize.

But when I mapped Canada’s industrial facilities, I found something different. The solutions aren’t theoretical anymore. They’re operational. The challenge isn’t technology. It’s deployment.

the 78 million tonne question

Canada’s heavy industries emit 78.3 Mt CO₂e annually, about 11% of national emissions1. Oil and gas still dominates at 217 Mt (31% of total)2, but heavy industry is different. It’s concentrated. It’s capital-intensive. And surprisingly, it’s solvable with existing technology.

1 Environment and Climate Change Canada (2025). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Indicators

2 Environment and Climate Change Canada (2024). National Inventory Report 1990-2022

Every decarbonization pathway heavy industry needs is already running somewhere in Canada.

cement: three ways to fix limestone

Cement production releases CO₂ two ways: burning fuel for heat and decomposing limestone (CaCO₃ → CaO + CO₂). Canada produces 10-13 million tonnes annually, with production hitting 12.7 Mt in 2017 and 13.6 Mt in 20183. Here’s what’s working:

4 Lafarge Canada (2024). Hyperion Carbon Recycling System Launch

6 Heidelberg Materials (2024). Edmonton Carbon Capture Project

Carbon capture at the kiln. Lafarge’s Bath plant runs the Hyperion Carbon Recycling System, capturing 1,000 tonnes CO₂ annually through electrochemistry4. At Richmond BC, Lafarge works with Svante and Dimensional Energy on CO₂ capture and utilization5. Heidelberg Materials in Edmonton targets 95% capture of process emissions6.

Alternative chemistry. Lafarge’s OneCem Portland limestone cement cuts emissions 10%, now deployed at Bath, Richmond, and Brookfield7. Carbon Upcycling in Calgary blends CO₂ with mine tailings, permanently mineralizing carbon while cutting emissions up to 60%8.

8 Carbon Upcycling (2024). CO2 Mineralization Technology

9 Ontario Environmental Registry (2024). St. Marys Cement UC3 System

Electrolysis instead of heat. St. Marys Bowmanville deployed the UC3 electrolysis system, splitting limestone to generate hydrogen and oxygen for kilns9. Pure CO₂ stream ready for capture. No combustion needed.

The national “Roadmap to Net-Zero Concrete” targets 40% cuts by 2030, net-zero by 205010. The technology exists. Plants are running.

10 Cement Association of Canada (2022). Roadmap to Net-Zero Carbon Concrete by 2050

steel: the electric revolution happening now

Canada’s steel transformation is simpler than people think. Replace blast furnaces with electric arc furnaces. Use direct reduced iron instead of coke. Cut emissions 40% by 2030.

ArcelorMittal Dofasco (Hamilton): Building 2.5 Mt/year DRI facility and 2.4 Mt EAF. Cuts 3 Mt CO₂ annually11. Construction hasn’t started as of August 2024, completion now targeted for 2030 not 202812. Federal commitment: $400 million. Ontario: $500 million.

11 Government of Canada (2022). ArcelorMittal Dofasco DRI-EAF Investment

13 Algoma Steel (2025). Q1 2025 Financial Results

Algoma Steel (Sault Ste. Marie): Accelerated timeline, first steel from EAF expected Q2 2025, full operation by 2027 (not 2029 as planned)13. Two furnaces achieve 70% emission reduction (~2 Mt CO₂/yr) with 3.7 million tonnes capacity.

The economics work at carbon pricing above $170/tonne. We’re heading there by 2030.

aluminum: the breakthrough that’s here

This deserves more attention. Rio Tinto’s ELYSIS inert-anode process replaces carbon anodes with ceramics. Instead of CO₂, it releases oxygen14.

First commercial license issued June 2024 for 100 kA demonstration at Arvida15. Commercial-scale 450 kA cells installed at Alma, full deployment by 2026. If scaled across Canada’s aluminum sector: 7 Mt CO₂ cut annually16.

Combined with Quebec’s 99.8% renewable grid, this produces the world’s lowest-carbon aluminum. Not incrementally better. Fundamentally different.

chemicals: where carbon capture already works

Nutrien’s Redwater facility captures CO₂ from ammonia production since 2019 via Alberta Carbon Trunk Line. Expanded July 2023 to over 300,000 tonnes CO₂ per year, with 600,000+ tonnes sequestered to date17.

18 Air Products (2024). Edmonton Net-Zero Hydrogen Complex

19 Natural Resources Canada (2024). Hydrogen Strategy Progress Report

20 Dow Chemical (2024). Path2Zero Alberta Project

Blue ammonia is happening: - Air Products Net-Zero Hydrogen Complex (Edmonton): Autothermal reforming with >90% CO₂ capture produces 140,000 tonnes hydrogen annually. $1.6 billion investment, operational 202418 - Hydrogen Canada Corp (Alberta): Planning >99% CO₂ capture for 1 million tonnes low-carbon ammonia annually19 - Dow’s Path2Zero (Alberta): World’s first net-zero ethylene plant by 2027. $8.6 billion investment20

These aren’t pilots. They’re commercial facilities.

pulp and paper: the carbon-negative opportunity

Pulp mills burn black liquor for energy, already carbon-neutral. Add carbon capture, they become carbon-negative.

West Fraser Hinton runs Canada’s first commercial LignoForce™ system since 2016, extracting 10,500 tonnes lignin annually21. Now partnering with TorchLight for 1.3 megatonnes CO₂ capture by 202722.

21 FPInnovations (2024). LignoForce System

22 TorchLight Bioresources (2024). West Fraser Hinton Mill Project

23 Government of Canada (2024). Kruger Wayagamack Carbon Capture Investment

Kruger Wayagamack (Trois-Rivières) deploys Mantel Capture’s molten borate system in 2025, capturing 1,800 tonnes annually with $17.6 million government support23.

These aren’t offsets. It’s permanent atmospheric removal from biogenic sources.

mining: electrification at depth

Newmont’s Borden mine operates as Canada’s first all-electric underground mine. Complete battery-electric fleet eliminates 5,000 tonnes CO₂ annually24. Vale Canada runs 19 electric machines in Ontario, planning 38+ by 202625.

24 Mining Association of Canada (2024). Newmont’s All-Electric Borden Mine

25 Vale Canada (2024). Electric Vehicle Fleet Expansion

Copper Mountain (BC) installed North America’s first trolley-assist system April 2022. Eleven hybrid Komatsu trucks on 1-kilometer electric line, each displacing 400 liters diesel per hour26.

Remote operations adding renewables: - Glencore Raglan (Quebec): Two wind turbines meet ~10% demand, achieving 12,000 tonnes CO₂ reduction27 - B2Gold Back River (Nunavut): Approved July 2024 for wind, solar, batteries targeting 50% emission cuts28

27 Glencore (2024). Raglan Mine Renewable Energy

the sequencing that matters

Start with methane. Canada’s Methane Strategy calls it “one of the lowest cost opportunities”29. The IEA confirms 75% of oil/gas methane reducible at near-zero cost30.

29 Environment and Climate Change Canada (2022). Faster and Further: Canada’s Methane Strategy

30 International Energy Agency (2025). Global Methane Tracker

Then the big emitters with proven pathways. Then the edge cases.

The “hard-to-abate” label can be misleading. Cement has alternatives: geopolymer concrete (80% reduction), limestone calcined clay (40% reduction), CO₂-absorbing ferrock31. The IPCC confirms “cementitious material substitution can reduce process emissions by up to 50%”32.

31 University of the Built Environment (2024). 12 Sustainable Alternatives to Traditional Concrete

Heavy industry decarbonization isn’t waiting for technology. It’s waiting for deployment.

what this means

Canada’s advantages compound: 81% non-emitting grid, existing CO₂ pipelines in Alberta, resource proximity. We’re not discovering solutions. We’re deploying them.

Heavy industry’s 78 million tonnes could drop 60% by 2035 using only technology operational today in Canada. Not laboratory demonstrations. Commercial facilities producing materials now.

That may be less exciting than fusion or direct air capture. But it’s what actually works.